The Population Tsunami is Coming!

Looking at U.S. Census population forecasts from 2004, we see an increase of 100% to 300% to all ages over 70 in the years between 2010 and 2035. The Baby Boomers will be introducing the very beginning of this glacial increase in age distribution. It shows the over-80 year old group almost doubling, the 90s quadrupling, and population reaching 100 exceeding a 900% increase by 2050. Public data estimates show that in some U.S. states, there will be more than 20% of the population with disabilities.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics published a report this year on Disability and Health in the United States between 2001 and 2005. It examines differences between adults with and without disabilities using statistics from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The differences focus on difficulties in "movement or sensory, emotional, or cognitive functioning," categorized by limitations in self-care tasks, work or ability to participate in social functions. Inclusion in one or more of these groups depends on the respondents' own reports.

The report concentrates on people who are not in any type of institution. At the time of this report, more than half of the respondents who reported activity limitations of any level were under 65 years of age. About half of those reporting basic or complex limitations reported income below 200% of the federal poverty threshold.

This chart of current figures showing disability distribution within age groups and gender illustrates more than half of those over 65 are already disabled.

That tells how it was and how it is, but what about the future?

According to the population distribution forecast, Baby Boomers are transitioning from dynamic workforce leaders to the new majority. Predictions are that as the population age increases, age-related and obesity-related disabling conditions will also increase more than expected due to the age distribution alone. The American elderly population is growing in leaps, and with it, the disability segment is expanding to become more of the mainstream.

Are We Ready? Is Society prepared for the probable tsunami of a population segment made up of retirees and disabled people, many under the poverty level? The country must be prepared with health care, accessibility, disease management techniques, and housing. What else?

It is our experience that people often fail to adequately prepare for the future, especially when it may be unpleasant to think about. Retirees are often not quite prepared for the drop in income and the need to continue paying for life's pleasures for many years. Social Security will pay for the continued lifestyle.  Many people don't even have plans for their final remains. They don't want to think about dying, and they certainly do not want to think about the possibility that they will become disabled. This head-in-the-sand attitude may have devastating results. For whom does the bell toll? It tolls for our aging population.

Thanks to the ADA and disability advocates, there is more help now than ever before, but we are approaching a time when disability will be the norm. Will we be ready?


Credits:
Population over 50: Created by Garry Jenkin, using Swivel software and U.S. Census Bureau data
Disabled Population by Age and Gender: Created by Garry Jenkin, using Swivel software using Disability and Health in the United States data
Document Credit: Altman B, Bernstein A. Disability and Health in the United States, 2001–2005. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2008. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission.
Note: We find various statistics reported in various reports. Numbers and years used are from cited reports.